Ten Reasons Harris Must, Should, And Will Win The Election

With good reason, everyone I talk to is nervous about the possibility that with 11 days left until Election Day, Trump could still win a second presidential term. Here are some thoughts on the reasons Harris must, should and, drumroll … will win this election:

HARRIS MUST WIN

10.  The Climate:  Climate has barely been discussed in this election campaign, even after two monster hurricanes in a row. Nonetheless, one of the most devastating consequences of a second Trump presidency would be to deep freeze American, and therefore, global efforts to combat climate change. The world has a number of serious challenges, but climate change is an existential threat. Not only would Trump divert the billions in the pipeline for decarbonization to other purposes, but even more damagingly, he would validate climate denialism even deeper in the American psyche than it already is. There is no sugarcoating this – Trump winning would be a disaster for the future of humanity on this globe.

9. Our Turbulent World: We need Kamala Harris to be the next president to protect and advance the American-led international order that has, by and large, produced peace, economic prosperity, and an expansion of human freedom since the end of World War II. This order is being challenged by the rise of China and the reemergence of a revanchist Russia, both of which desire to erode American leadership and develop an alternative world order advantageous to their authoritarian political systems and mercantilist economies. Trump’s foreign policy rejects the ideas underlying the liberal world order. As has been repeatedly demonstrated, Trump admires the autocratic and highly transactional nature of the Chinese and Russian regimes. We know he will sell out the brave Ukrainians fighting for freedom and democracy in a New York minute and that will spell doom for Taiwan as well. In his first term Trump disparaged and weakened the vitality of NATO, the greatest military alliance in the history of the world, and will continue to degrade it if he gets another chance in the White House. The global economy will suffer if China and Russia have their way. For the sake of global liberty and prosperity, Trump must lose. 

8. American Democracy: Will Trump be able to rule as a fascist dictator on day one or longer if elected? No. Our institutions are still too strong for that to occur. But I do believe that a Trump presidency would continue to erode the strength of our democracy, undermine faith in our democratic traditions, and break norms that are vital to America’s 236-year experiment in self-government. Trump is innately authoritarian. I agree with General Milley, he is fascist to the core. In a second term, surrounded by acolytes who share his anti-democratic world view, he would exercise the substantial powers of the presidency with ruthlessness and challenge restraints at every turn. The rule of law that limits governmental discretion is much more of an attitude than an enforceable principle. With a cadre of Stephen Millers running the federal bureaucracy, a second Trump Administration will impose its policy preferences, regardless of their unpopularity or inconsistency with established law, as far as the currently pliant Supreme Court will allow. Trump has already undermined confidence in our free and fair election system. The damage he will do to our elections if he regains power is incalculable. And when the people rise up to challenge Trump’s actions through street protests, I do not doubt that he would use the emergency powers granted under the Insurrection Act more liberally than any of his predecessors. We know Kamala Harris will exercise the powers of the presidency with honor and dignity. Liz Cheney is right – preserving American democracy requires the election of Kamala Harris.

HARRIS SHOULD WIN

7. The U.S. Economy Is the Envy of the World: I know the electorate is white hot mad about the 16 months of high inflation that we experienced from April 2022-July 2023. On all other factors, the US economy has performed remarkably well over the span of the Biden-Harris Administration. Growth is high, unemployment is low. The Dow Jones has risen 11,000 points (35%) since January 2021. Gas is at $3.16 per gallon. Young people are entering a robust job market with 254,000 new jobs added last month alone. The U.S. economy is projected to grow by almost three percent this year, meanwhile growth in Europe is anemic (less than 1%), and growth in China is projected to drop ½ a percent from last year.  Overall, this is an economic performance that merits reelection. 

6. Trump’s Economic Policies are Inflationary and Beneficial to the Rich:  It is remarkable that Trump-Vance has been able to run on making America more affordable, when its core economic policies are all designed to bring about higher prices. Here are the policies: 1) a large tariff on all imports (this is a tax on American importers that will cause them to raise prices on almost every item Americans purchase); 2) pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates (doing so prematurely also risks increasing inflation); and 3) mass deportation of immigrants (since we are at full employment, this reduction in the workforce will raise wages and therefore inflation). Trump’s only answer to the inflation he will cause is that he believes price will go down if he ramps up fossil fuel production (“drill, baby, drill”). But, of course, new oil fields take many years to come on line and even then, oil prices are determined by global supply and demand, so this is no answer at all. Trump will also dole out tax breaks to the corporate interests and billionaires that have funded his campaign. We know this is his policy because he has said so publicly and this is exactly what his first term tax legislation did (while adding $2.5 trillion to the debt).

Any fair comparison of the two candidates’ economic plans and record should lead to a Harris victory.

5. Harris Is a Strong Candidate: Kamala Harris has done a remarkable job since taking over as the candidate since late July. She acts presidential. She has shown she cares about people. She exudes optimism, love of country, and a commitment to American principles and values. She has faced an uphill battle for sure, taking over the top of the ticket in an unprecedented fashion and not having had the benefit of running in the primaries which would have enabled her to gradually introduce herself to the electorate and develop a policy platform. She also inherited a negative popularity rating from Biden, as well as low marks on key issues like inflation and immigration. She hasn’t reversed these negative perceptions entirely, but she has made a lot of progress. She has also stimulated enthusiasm within the Democratic party, leading to ginormous fundraising in a short period of time as well as an outpouring of volunteerism. Harris emasculated Trump on the debate stage, which pushed her to a lead in the polls that has mainly been steady since the debate (see here for an explanation of how large numbers of pro-GOP polls are affecting the polling averages). While her answers to some interview questions are not perfect (and some questions just don’t have great answers), she has shown the right combination of steely resolve, compassion, joy, and, especially in comparison to Trump, normality. Candidate quality matters, and the choice on this score should make a big difference.

4. Democrats Have Run a Strong Campaign: Democrats have built and are executing a strong campaign. This matters. Democrats have raised boatloads of money. They are outspending the GOP in the battlegrounds despite Elon Musk’s massive subsidization of Trump. Democrats have also built an unprecedentedly large field operation that has been on the ground for months in the key states. This organization has been supplemented by a volunteer network that may also be unprecedented in size, scope, level of activity. Trump has outsourced almost all of the GOP get-out-the-vote effort to paid contractors; we will see if they deliver. Democrats are also outpacing the Trump campaign in these final weeks with Harris, Walz, the Obamas, the Clintons, and many other surrogates out on the stump, enabling the campaign to be generate enthusiasm and gain media coverage in many places at the same time. The Trump campaign just doesn’t have the same bandwidth, not to mention and old, tired and off-message candidate. Remember, Democrats had absolutely zero ground operation in 2020 and their candidate was hunkered down in a basement in Delaware for most of the campaign. They still won. The strength of the Harris campaign should make the difference in this competitive race.   

HARRIS WILL WIN

3. The polls do not reflect the post-Dobbs electorate: As all of you know, polls are based on a guess of what the electorate is going to look like. I believe most professional polling outfits are basing their models on what happened in 2020, with only minor adjustments. I also believe the pollsters are sensitive to having underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and are therefore being conservative in their turnout estimates for Democrats. These factors have led to polls showing a dead even race.

But I believe the overturning of Roe v. Wade in July 2022 has fundamentally changed the shape of the American electorate. In all the abortion referenda that have occurred since Dobbs, the pro-choice vote has come out in massively larger numbers than the polls have predicted. Similarly, in special elections for Congress and state legislative races since Dobbs, Democrats have been consistently overperforming the polls, either winning races or shaving the expected margins substantially. This post-Dobbs electorate led to Democrats holding their own and almost winning a midterm election in 2022, bucking the deep historical trend of large losses for the party in control of the White House. I know everyone believes that inflation is the evil spirit that will put Trump in the White House, but just recall that inflation peaked at 9.1% in July 2022, just 4 months before the midterms. Today, it is at 2.4%. In contrast, the abortion issue has become even more potent over the past two years. Whereas the reality of Roe v. Wade being overturned was just sinking in when voters went to the polls in 2022, its effects are now being felt across the country. It is not only the deaths of pregnant women that is generating anxiety, but also the fear that restrictive abortion laws in many states are going to make doctors hesitant to give pregnant women the health care they need. When you combine the abortion issue with the misogyny that animated J.D. Vance’s attack on “childless cat-ladies” together with the crypto-bro toxic masculinity that permeates MAGA and the Trump campaign, I am anticipating massive turnout of anti-Trump women together with men who respect women. These voters know that it is not only abortion and bodily autonomy, but rather the right of women to equal dignity and respect in our entire society, that is on the ballot. Defeating the ugliness of the forced pregnancy, no-exception-abortion-ban crowd, while at the same time putting the first woman in the White House, will be a statement of historic magnitude.

2. MAGA is deeply unpopular:  In 2016, Trump rode a wave of anti-establishment economic populism to the White House in a country that was still in a foul mood due to the slow recovery from the Great Recession. While he and his supporters at times demonstrated a meanness of spirit that at times blossomed into overt bigotry, the MAGA movement that has emerged since then is far more intolerant, offensive, threatening, unbalanced and authoritarian . I do not think that the America of 2024 is ready to empower MAGA. This is the MAGA that disdains LGBTQ+ people, degrades urban city dwellers (their code for people of color), calls Democrats “communists, socialists, and marxists,” and lapses with ease into threats of violence against those who hold differing views from them. I think the majority of Americans also reject the Q-Anon induced, alternative-reality world that this movement has generated as a means to justify its political ideology and program: one where women are regularly seeking post-birth abortions, migrants are eating their pets, vermin roam American cities spreading disease, large numbers of youth are forced into sex change surgeries, Democrats conspire to manufacture votes and steal elections, and the January 6 rioters were FBI agents engaged in a false flag operation. Americans see the Marjorie Taylor Greens of the MAGA movement for who they really are – angry, misguided entertainers posing as politicians who are wholly unqualified to run a vegetable stand, let alone the United States government (my apologies to vegetable stand owners). MAGA will lose because it deserves to lose.

1. America is still America:  Harris will win because Americans do not want a president who is so deeply at odds with American values. As Democrats so beautifully displayed during their convention, America is still a country that values fundamental freedoms around the world and here at home. We do not want a president that coddles a dictator who savagely invades and seek to dominate a free and sovereign nation. We do not believe a president should ever use the military to suppress free speech or domestic dissent. We do not want legislators telling doctors how to treat their patients. We believe in the rule of law and that government must be used for the common good, not to advance the personal interests of those in power. We believe the person who holds the office of the presidency should reflect the decency, good nature and charitable spirit of our country. We do not want a mentally unfit, crude, self-obsessed fraudster, who demeans others, objectifies and abuses women, and projects fear rather than hope, to be the face of our nation. Despite our bitter differences on policy, Democrats, Independents and Republicans of good faith are going to reject the darkness of another Trump term and elect a patriotic, well-grounded and good-spirited woman to lead us to a brighter future. 

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I believe that Kamala Harris is going to win this race. But the race has not yet been won. There are still 11 days to give money, knock on doors, call and text voters, drive your neighbors to the polls and, of course, cast your ballot. The result will depend on what you do over the next week and a half.