Murder, fist bumps and the ethical tightrope of the US-Saudi relationship

Oddly enough, accepting MBS is the best path for human rights

I have written exclusively about domestic affairs thus far in this newsletter, but these are “Perilous Times” not only due to the erosion of American democracy, but also because democracy and liberalism are under such assault around the globe.

China is pursing a long-term grand strategy of replacing the post-World War II liberal order dominated by the United States with its own, illiberal, China-centric vision of how the world should be organized. Russia too rejects leadership role the U.S. plays in the modern world and is seeking to reestablish the empire it lost when the USSR dissolved thirty years ago, most notably via its brutal assault on Ukraine. And even more disturbingly, countries that embraced democracy such as Poland and Hungary have backslid towards authoritarianism, overtly embracing white Christian nationalism and undermining democratic institutions (even though they both remain members of the EU and NATO).

So it is against this background that I am thinking about what stance the United States and the West should take towards the historically illiberal and egregious violator of human rights - Saudi Arabia, especially in light of President Biden’s recent trip there. It is a tough call - but as distasteful as it is, fixing the US-Saudi relationship is the right thing to do.

My starting point for this discussion is that there is a great deal not to like about Saudi Arabia.

It is an intolerant authoritarian theocracy that has enforced a harsh interpretation of Islamic law upon its own citizens and damagingly exported these ideas around the globe. Indeed, the spread of Saudi Wahhabism created the ideological and physical infrastructure that spawned al Qaeda, ISIS and other violent extremist organizations that continue to foment terrorism in dozens of countries. The country is run by a corrupt, indulgent royal family that systematically abuses human rights to crush any forms of political, religious, or social opposition to the regime. Fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi and many suspect that the Saudi government or other powers within Saudi Arabia may have played a role in supporting the plot. More recently, Saudi Arabia launched a catastrophic war against Iranian backed Houthi rebels in Yemen (with US acquiescence and weaponry) that has caused one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world. And, of course, the current putative leader of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known globally by the moniker “MBS”) has been implicated by U.S. intelligence agencies in the grotesque murder of journalist and U.S. legal resident Jamal Khashoggi.

Despite all this, the United States has considered Saudi Arabia an ally almost since its birth as a nation in the 1930s. The relationship has been almost exclusively based on Saudi’s capacity to produce oil to fuel the world’s economy and Saudi Arabia’s desire to fall within the American security umbrella. It has always been a transactional relationship given that the countries have virtually no shared values.

Tension in the relationship grew during the Obama Administration when the Saudis opposed the nuclear deal with Iran and took other steps inimical to US interests. Trump, however, eagerly embraced the Saudis, who lauded his cancellation of the Iran nuclear treaty and promised to enter into huge contracts with U.S. companies. Trump indulged the Saudis with weaponry and political support, including public exoneration of MBS for the Khashoggi murder. Drawing a contrast with Trump, Biden said during the 2000 campaign there was “very little social redeeming value in the present [Saudi] government” and he would make them “the pariah that they are.”

So the decision over the direction of the US-Saudi relationship is deeply significant. Does the need for the US to reinforce democratic norms at this particularly fragile moment require it to turn away from the illiberal Saudi regime whose leader is a murderous thug (as some have called for)? Or does a cold calculation of national interests lead us to turn a blind eye to human rights abuses in order to gain Saudi cooperation on oil production and keep the Saudis out of the China-Russia camp? And if we take this pragmatic path, we need to consider whether we would be making the same mistakes as during the Cold War when the U.S. backed horrible, oppressive regimes exclusively to bolster our resistance to communism.

As much as I detest Saudi Arabia and its values, and as much as I am appalled by brutal Khashoggi murder, I am in favor of the U.S. engaging with the Saudis, including its leader - MBS. It is a rotten choice to have to make, but deciding between two bad choices is not infrequent in international affairs.

That said, our willingness to engage has to be contingent on a Saudi understanding that imbalances in the relationship that have emerged so strongly in the last twenty years — with the Saudis too often acting directly contrary to US interests — need to be corrected. There is some evidence that this may be occurring.

Here is my reasoning:

1) MBS is taking important steps to reform Saudi Arabia. I can’t say this enough - I am not excusing murder by saying we should deal with MBS. But we also have to consider that he has acted boldly to defang the religious establishment that has imposed such damaging orthodoxy on Saudi society and promoted the spread of radical Islamism around the globe. Cutting off financial support for this ideology and inhibiting its spread is a matter of global importance - even though the threat of al Qaeda and ISIS has ebbed in recent years. MBS has also liberalized rules relating to women’s standing in Saudi Arabia and is allowing some space for arts and criticism of the regime.

The Arabian peninsula is no picnic - it is a minor miracle that someone with MBS’s views has gained power over the powerful forces aligned against them. I think we have to ask ourselves if punishing Saudi Arabia and trying to undermine MBS domestically over the Khashoggi murder might easily backfire. If MBS fails - we could easily end up with a more traditional Saudi royal family leader (of which there are many) that would side with the clerics with disastrous impact.

2) Demanding an apology and monetary compensation for the murder should continue to be part of our diplomacy with the Saudis. The stain of the murder on MBS should not be shunted aside. As we have done in other matters of state-sponsored terrorism and murder - we should continue to demand accountability from the Saudi state for what happened to one of our residents. Demanding compensation is frequently a way these matters are handled, as it was regarding the Libyan sponsorship of the Lockerbie bombing and, for that matter, when the United States mistakenly bombed the Chinese embassy in Serbia.

3) If the Saudis want good relations, they can’t play both sides of the fence with Russia and China. There are many reasons the Saudis should prefer allying with the US over Russia and China. The US is committed to stopping the Iranian nuclear program - the Saudis’ number one security concern. It is also committed to providing security in the Gulf region, which neither the Chinese or Russians are capable of doing. So if the Saudis desire these benefits, then it has to act like a true ally and not take actions diametrically opposite to US interests, for example by failing to increase oil supply in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, action that put approximately $100 billion in additional oil revenues into Russia’s coffers. As Senator Chris Murphy has pointed out, if you are really an ally, it shouldn’t require a presidential visit to get you do to the right thing. But it looks like oil production is going to ramp up. And the announcement that the Saudis are going to cooperate with the US on issues relating to expansion of 5G & development of 6G is evidence that the Saudi’s are getting on the same page as the US when it comes to countering China’s efforts to dominate key technologies of the future.

4) The Saudis could play a vital role in the Israel/Palestinian conflict. Distancing from the Saudis at this moment could undercut the most encouraging movement towards Middle East peace in almost three decades - economic and political engagement between Israel and multiple Arab states - the “Abraham Accords.” These relationships are real and producing tangible benefits for Israelis and Arabs alike. Having Saudi Arabia join the Accords would be a monumental step — but the Saudis are holding out until there is greater progress for the Palestinians - which is both wise and justified. The Accords, and the Saudis possible inclusion, have been breathing real energy into an issue that has been moribund for almost twenty years. Not only is Israel incentivized to make concessions in order to bring Saudi Arabia into the Accords, but growth of political, economic, and security ties between Israel and its regional Arab neighbors may give Israel more confidence that it can make concessions to the Palestinians without having the fear the development of a terror state on its border funded by Arabs across the region. The United States can play an important role in encouraging Israeli-Saudi rapprochement — but only if US-Saudi relations are on an even keel. It is significant that an important first step in Israel-Saudi normalization was announced prior to Biden’s visit - the opening of Saudi airspace to flights to and from Israel.

For all these reasons, reframing and strengthening the US-Saudi relationship is both in the national interest, and, strangely enough, the right thing to do to strengthen the liberal order. Saudi has a long way to go - but MBS is pointing it in the right direction domestically. Having a global energy superpower aligned with the US and the West will be an important asset against China and Russia. The Khashoggi murder was an absolute horror - but its significance pales in comparison to the mass war crimes being committed in Ukraine every day of this war or the Chinese atrocities against the Uyghurs, not to mention is serial human rights violations against other ethnic minorities, its destruction of democracy in Hong Kong, and the surveillance state it imposes on is 1.2 billion citizens. When it comes to human rights the biggest offenders are Russia and China; countering them, even by allying with other human rights offenders, is the vital cause of our times.

Biden did the right thing by reversing his campaign promise to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state, giving MBS the repulsive fist bump, then getting down to restructuring this fraught, but necessary relationship.