The Election: Sorry, I was wrong
The election results last night were stunning, not just in the end result but the magnitude of Trump and the GOP’s victory. I am guilty of having bought into a theory of this election that was just dead wrong. I am truly sorry for raising many readers’ false hopes and otherwise just missing the boat.
My theory was based primarily on the Democrats’ historic over-performance in the 2022 midterms — when inflation was at its peak and the border was out of control — and the robustness of the campaign machine the party built for 2024. But it did not account for Trump’s widespread appeal (which was not in play in 2022) and how his lackluster campaign was bailed out by Elon Musk.
In retrospect, Democrats’ have paid a steep price for President Biden’s selfish decision to run for reelection after the 2022 midterms. Had he not, perhaps Democrats would have found a candidate that would have put more distance between him or herself and the inflation that took place on the Biden’s watch and the Administration’s overly permissive migration policies. That candidate would have been seasoned by experience in the primaries and perhaps better able to address these issues than was the eventual nominee, Vice President Harris. I think Harris performed brilliantly under the circumstances, but clearly, I underestimated that much of the country did not want to reward Biden-Harris with a second term and many were not yet sufficiently comfortable with her to put her in the White House.
So, here we are.
I do fear that we are in for more perilous times ahead. I hope my analysis in months to come will be more insightful than my take on the election.
Americans voted with their anger. Anger against Biden. Against the elites. Against the other. What is most depressing is that policies don’t matter-when Trump implements his tariffs, tears the country apart with his purge of undocumented immigrants, loosens the guardrails on the Fed, all leading to the exact inflation people voted against, the voters will be surprised as if this wasn’t foretold. We are in a post-fact world, a post logic world and I truly fear for what is coming. Having said all that, I will say it’s time for the Dems to cast aside their extreme left. Their pessimism, their identity politics, their general sourness about the state of the country because it never gets all the way to where they want it to be, has infected the broader party with an identity that is not where most Americans are. We are center-left in our reliance on government programs but we are center right in our cultural perspective. To move ahead the Dems must coalesce around a vision that emphasizes what is good about America, not what is lacking
It wasn't just a "red wave"; it was a red tsunami. People told me that I was nuts when, a year ago, I predicted that Trump would win (and that was with Biden running). Polls dramatically underestimated Trump's popularity in both 2016 and 2020, and there was no reason in my mind to assume that they would be any more accurate this year.