Yes, that is the fear. I don't know what to make of polls at all these days, but they do show a trend line and it is not good. And who knows which Biden shows up at the September debate. The one at the press conference today wasn't fantastic, but not so bad.
Very well said. Since Biden declared his candidacy for a second term last year and no other leading Democrat opposed him, I have had the view that the Democrats are sleepwalking to disaster.
Well, I am late to this view, thinking that Biden could be B- Joe to & make it through the campaign and win - but the debate - which was a D- Joe, has been catastrophic.
David, you are spot-on with your analysis of this. It could re-energize the youth and African-American vote to have Harris at the top of the ticket, and it could deliver southern and the NC swing-state vote to have someone like Roy Cooper as her running mate.
For starters: Leave NATO; Hand Ukraine over to Russia; continue to allow states to ban medically necessary abortions, eliminate the civil service, use the Justice Department & IRS for political purposes, reverse all progress on decarbonizing the economy, more tax cuts for the wealthy, and everything in Project 2025, which Trump is claiming no knowledge of but in reality is the playbook for the Trump II Administration.
Gimme a break. He's not going to take the US out of NATO. He says these things to get NATO members to pay up. He's also not going to hand over Ukraine to Russia. They may be able to keep Crimea which Obama handed to them and he might give them a few more towns but whatever he gives them I'm sure Zelensky will agree to it. Let's end these stupid wars which Biden can't seem to address and get back to peace which we had under Trump. Re medically necessary abortions, that's now a state issue and it's up to the people of those states to decide. Nothing wrong with letting the states decide these things. That's democracy and what the constitutional provides. Eliminating civil service is another joke and it's not going to happen. Cutbacks maybe. Use the justice dept for political purposes, are you sure you're not taking about Biden. lol Decarbonizing the economy- that's another joke and the focus should not be on the US but other countries like China and India which are the real offenders. Tax cuts for the wealthy is another joke. I'm not a republican but it's well known now that the democrats are the leading party of the rich elites. Project 2025 has not been endorsed by Trump and you know it. They may adopt parts of it but so what. Let's get the biggest problems facing the country under control, i.e. inflation and illegal immigration. Trump will at least try to do something there.
Let's start where you ended - inflation. It has been hovering at 3% since June 2023 - which is pretty much normal, and fell for the 4th month in a row this June. What exactly is Trump's plan for tackling inflation? All his main economic policies are inflationary. He will place tariffs on all imported goods - that will affect virtually every product on the market - food, clothes, cars, fertilizer and so on. These things can't just be replaced by American products, and even if they could, we produce them more expensively than the rest of the world, so prices will still go up.
We also have a tight labor market, unemployment is at 4%, which is about as low as it ever gets. What does Trump want to do to the labor supply - deport millions of undocumented workers and reduce legal immigration and refugees. You may like these policies, but don't fool yourself into believing they will not cause prices to rise. Fewer workers means higher wages which translates into higher prices.
Finally, Trump wants to undercut the independence of the Fed and put in a Chair who will do what Trump wants - which is to lower interest rates quickly to stimulate growth. The reason the Fed has been very cautious to lower interest rates is to get inflation under control. Trumps actions on the Fed will heat up the economy and heat up inflation.
This is a triple whammy that will rapidly raise prices across the board. If you hated inflation under Biden, you are really going to hate it even more under Trump.
Let me give you two simple reasons why inflation is still higher than it should be under Biden.
1. Student loan forgiveness has increased inflation because it’s put more money into the economy which is being spent on a limited supply of resources that’s caused the prices of those resources (think housing, food and gas) to rise. That is inflation.
2. The increase in our population due to rapid immigration under Biden is according to most experts at least 10 million people. Like student loan forgiveness, this increase also puts a strain on these limited resources (again think housing, food and gas) causing the prices of these resources to rise and hence increase inflation.
In addition, your argument that deporting millions of immigrants means fewer workers, higher wages for those remaining and thus higher prices ignores the fact that many of these migrants are not working or if they’re undocumented they’re not working at all because it’s illegal to hire them. See Title 8 U.S.C §1324 a(a)(1)(A) which makes it unlawful for any person or entity to hire, recruit, or refer for a fee, for employment in the United States an undocumented worker. So many of these people are not contributing to society but they are still putting a strain on our limited resources and thus increasing prices. Deporting them will reduce that strain on resources and lower prices, not to mention reduce the incredible burden that this excessive number of migrants has put on many of our cities like New York.
In addition, your argument that Trump’s tariffs will increase prices has already been largely proven wrong since his 25% tariff on Chinese products has not resulted in any significant increase in prices here. This cost has been absorbed by the Chinese manufacturers. To prove that, all you have to do is look at the prices of consumer electronics products like 4k TVs which continue to drop in price.
Finally, even if he wanted to, Trump will not be able to put in a fed chairman who will simply lower rates to heat up the economy. Republicans won't let him do that. Trust me on that one.
* Most of Biden's large scale student loan forgiveness proposals have been blocked. The modest amounts of loan forgiveness that have taken place has not "put more money into the economy," but merely reduced the debt of some young people who were deeply in debt. Even if these still indebted youth were more inclined to spend due to the debt relief - which would be very hard to prove - the numbers here are so small that they could not be driving national level inflation
* The US population growth was at a historic LOW in 2021 due to deaths from COVID, restricted migration, and reduced birth rates. It rebounded in 2022 and 2023, but the levels these years (0.4% & 0.5%) were far lower than three out of the four years during the Trump Administration (all but the COVID year of 2020 (0.49).
* If you think undocumented workers aren't working because it is illegal to hire them, you haven't been paying attention to the immigration debate. Trump claims that they are stealing jobs from Americans. So it can't be that they are stealing jobs from Americans and that deporting them won't reduce the labor supply - of course it will. I agree that we should reduce the number of people allowed in to claim asylum -- Biden has now done that, albeit belatedly. But the kinds of deportations Trump is discussing will reduce the labor force and therefore will cause a tighter job market and therefore will cause inflation.
* Trump's 25% tariffs on certain Chinese products did cause some inflation, but that was not all that noticeable because inflation was very low when he took office and the economy had been intentionally deflated by the Republican Congress that did not want strong economic growth during the Obama years. Now, when inflation is higher, the tariffs would cause unwanted inflation and keep in mind - he is talking about tariffs on every import from every country - there are virtually no goods in America that will not be impacted (even things we grow here will be more expensive because we import fertilizer).
* Ha ha on the spine of Republican Senators restraining Trump's Fed nominee.
If he does not get out of this race, this election will end up being a blowout.
Yes, that is the fear. I don't know what to make of polls at all these days, but they do show a trend line and it is not good. And who knows which Biden shows up at the September debate. The one at the press conference today wasn't fantastic, but not so bad.
And he needed to do far better than just “not so bad”. He needed to hit a proverbial home run; instead he hit a single or maybe at best a double.
Very well said. Since Biden declared his candidacy for a second term last year and no other leading Democrat opposed him, I have had the view that the Democrats are sleepwalking to disaster.
Well, I am late to this view, thinking that Biden could be B- Joe to & make it through the campaign and win - but the debate - which was a D- Joe, has been catastrophic.
David, you are spot-on with your analysis of this. It could re-energize the youth and African-American vote to have Harris at the top of the ticket, and it could deliver southern and the NC swing-state vote to have someone like Roy Cooper as her running mate.
Finally anybody here think that the CIA might be behind Trump's attempted assassination today? lol
Can you elaborate as to what Trump's horrible plans for America are? I ask this in all seriousness.
For starters: Leave NATO; Hand Ukraine over to Russia; continue to allow states to ban medically necessary abortions, eliminate the civil service, use the Justice Department & IRS for political purposes, reverse all progress on decarbonizing the economy, more tax cuts for the wealthy, and everything in Project 2025, which Trump is claiming no knowledge of but in reality is the playbook for the Trump II Administration.
Gimme a break. He's not going to take the US out of NATO. He says these things to get NATO members to pay up. He's also not going to hand over Ukraine to Russia. They may be able to keep Crimea which Obama handed to them and he might give them a few more towns but whatever he gives them I'm sure Zelensky will agree to it. Let's end these stupid wars which Biden can't seem to address and get back to peace which we had under Trump. Re medically necessary abortions, that's now a state issue and it's up to the people of those states to decide. Nothing wrong with letting the states decide these things. That's democracy and what the constitutional provides. Eliminating civil service is another joke and it's not going to happen. Cutbacks maybe. Use the justice dept for political purposes, are you sure you're not taking about Biden. lol Decarbonizing the economy- that's another joke and the focus should not be on the US but other countries like China and India which are the real offenders. Tax cuts for the wealthy is another joke. I'm not a republican but it's well known now that the democrats are the leading party of the rich elites. Project 2025 has not been endorsed by Trump and you know it. They may adopt parts of it but so what. Let's get the biggest problems facing the country under control, i.e. inflation and illegal immigration. Trump will at least try to do something there.
Let's start where you ended - inflation. It has been hovering at 3% since June 2023 - which is pretty much normal, and fell for the 4th month in a row this June. What exactly is Trump's plan for tackling inflation? All his main economic policies are inflationary. He will place tariffs on all imported goods - that will affect virtually every product on the market - food, clothes, cars, fertilizer and so on. These things can't just be replaced by American products, and even if they could, we produce them more expensively than the rest of the world, so prices will still go up.
We also have a tight labor market, unemployment is at 4%, which is about as low as it ever gets. What does Trump want to do to the labor supply - deport millions of undocumented workers and reduce legal immigration and refugees. You may like these policies, but don't fool yourself into believing they will not cause prices to rise. Fewer workers means higher wages which translates into higher prices.
Finally, Trump wants to undercut the independence of the Fed and put in a Chair who will do what Trump wants - which is to lower interest rates quickly to stimulate growth. The reason the Fed has been very cautious to lower interest rates is to get inflation under control. Trumps actions on the Fed will heat up the economy and heat up inflation.
This is a triple whammy that will rapidly raise prices across the board. If you hated inflation under Biden, you are really going to hate it even more under Trump.
Let me give you two simple reasons why inflation is still higher than it should be under Biden.
1. Student loan forgiveness has increased inflation because it’s put more money into the economy which is being spent on a limited supply of resources that’s caused the prices of those resources (think housing, food and gas) to rise. That is inflation.
2. The increase in our population due to rapid immigration under Biden is according to most experts at least 10 million people. Like student loan forgiveness, this increase also puts a strain on these limited resources (again think housing, food and gas) causing the prices of these resources to rise and hence increase inflation.
In addition, your argument that deporting millions of immigrants means fewer workers, higher wages for those remaining and thus higher prices ignores the fact that many of these migrants are not working or if they’re undocumented they’re not working at all because it’s illegal to hire them. See Title 8 U.S.C §1324 a(a)(1)(A) which makes it unlawful for any person or entity to hire, recruit, or refer for a fee, for employment in the United States an undocumented worker. So many of these people are not contributing to society but they are still putting a strain on our limited resources and thus increasing prices. Deporting them will reduce that strain on resources and lower prices, not to mention reduce the incredible burden that this excessive number of migrants has put on many of our cities like New York.
In addition, your argument that Trump’s tariffs will increase prices has already been largely proven wrong since his 25% tariff on Chinese products has not resulted in any significant increase in prices here. This cost has been absorbed by the Chinese manufacturers. To prove that, all you have to do is look at the prices of consumer electronics products like 4k TVs which continue to drop in price.
Finally, even if he wanted to, Trump will not be able to put in a fed chairman who will simply lower rates to heat up the economy. Republicans won't let him do that. Trust me on that one.
Sorry, but these facts are all wrong.
* Most of Biden's large scale student loan forgiveness proposals have been blocked. The modest amounts of loan forgiveness that have taken place has not "put more money into the economy," but merely reduced the debt of some young people who were deeply in debt. Even if these still indebted youth were more inclined to spend due to the debt relief - which would be very hard to prove - the numbers here are so small that they could not be driving national level inflation
* The US population growth was at a historic LOW in 2021 due to deaths from COVID, restricted migration, and reduced birth rates. It rebounded in 2022 and 2023, but the levels these years (0.4% & 0.5%) were far lower than three out of the four years during the Trump Administration (all but the COVID year of 2020 (0.49).
* If you think undocumented workers aren't working because it is illegal to hire them, you haven't been paying attention to the immigration debate. Trump claims that they are stealing jobs from Americans. So it can't be that they are stealing jobs from Americans and that deporting them won't reduce the labor supply - of course it will. I agree that we should reduce the number of people allowed in to claim asylum -- Biden has now done that, albeit belatedly. But the kinds of deportations Trump is discussing will reduce the labor force and therefore will cause a tighter job market and therefore will cause inflation.
* Trump's 25% tariffs on certain Chinese products did cause some inflation, but that was not all that noticeable because inflation was very low when he took office and the economy had been intentionally deflated by the Republican Congress that did not want strong economic growth during the Obama years. Now, when inflation is higher, the tariffs would cause unwanted inflation and keep in mind - he is talking about tariffs on every import from every country - there are virtually no goods in America that will not be impacted (even things we grow here will be more expensive because we import fertilizer).
* Ha ha on the spine of Republican Senators restraining Trump's Fed nominee.