Enough is Enough: Why Trump Should Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program and End Israel’s Regime Change War

Iran does not deserve any more second chances; Netanyahu needs to be restrained as well.

Donald Trump prefers “deals” to address conflict rather than war, which is not a bad instinct. But U.S. interests in the Middle East and globally would best be served by eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, and then stopping Israel’s military offensive, which, to my mind, is now an effort to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Let’s take each issue in turn.

Iran has been told by every president since George W. Bush that it would not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. Apparently, Iran did not believe this. It therefore continued to advance its nuclear program with the goal of either using it to leverage large-scale economic benefits or joining the nuclear club and gaining the prestige and security protection that such status bestows.

The nuclear deal with Obama, the JCPOA, represented a trade Iran was willing to make, as it provided the regime with a chance to grow economically and satisfy its people, while preserving the option to resume the program in the future. This was a good—though not great—deal for the United States, because it put Iran’s nuclear program in mothballs for over a decade and opened the possibility of continued diplomacy to address Iran’s malfeasance in the region and pursue a follow-on agreement to permanently end Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 ended this possibility as it demonstrated the U.S. was an unreliable negotiating partner and foreclosed the possibility that the promise of economic integration with the West could incentivize a moderation in Iran’s behavior.

Over the past eight years, Iran reverted to its prior position of using its sprint toward a nuclear weapon as a leverage point, holding out for a deal from the West that would provide maximal economic benefits and minimal restraints on Iran’s other sources of power—its regional proxies and ballistic missile program. Iran also solidified its geopolitical position by aligning with China and Russia in an alliance to weaken American global power, giving it even greater confidence that it could obtain exceptionally favorable terms for any agreement to dial back its nuclear program—terms that were not forthcoming from the first Trump or Biden administrations.

Iran believed its nuclear blackmail would succeed because it thought the United States would be deterred from military action to end its nuclear program. Iran thought it was operating from a position of strength – a robust military, proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq that could wreak havoc in the region and send global oil prices skyrocketing, a large supply of ballistic missiles and drones capable of inflicting substantial damage on Israel and Iran’s regional enemies in the Gulf, a friendly regime in Syria, and underground nuclear facilities that could withstand all but the U.S.’s most powerful weapons. But virtually all of these elements of power are gone. The Assad regime is history, Hezbollah has been defanged, Hamas is severely degraded, Iran’s military leadership has been wiped out, and its air defenses destroyed.

Weak, exposed, and desperate, Iran is calling the Oval Office to “reopen talks.” Unless, as Tom Friedman suggests today, Iran is willing to voluntarily capitulate to a complete, verifiable dismantlement of every aspect of its nuclear program, Trump should not even answer the phone. Even if Iran agrees to end its program, it might be time to just do the deed and use America’s bunker-buster bombs to destroy Iran’s Fordow facility. An actual military strike by the world’s most powerful nation is what it will take to convince the Iranian regime that its days of nuclear brinksmanship are over for good. Critics claim that taking such action risks the start of a “regional war” and possible harm to American troops and other assets in the region, but I have my doubts. With Russia tied down in Ukraine, China ever-cautious, and all of Iran’s proxies on the ropes, who is going to come to Iran’s aid now? Surely, American troops in the region can defend themselves and the world can withstand a temporary oil shock in return for the absurd Iran nuclear program ending once and for all. A bold move of this sort will also be noticed by those in China itching for a fight over Taiwan and those in the Kremlin who still desire to see Russian tanks rolling into Kyiv.

The destruction of Iran’s nuclear program should also mark the end of Israel’s air war against Iran for a variety of reasons.

First, Trump needs to establish that it is the United States that is calling the shots in the Middle East, not Benjamin Netanyahu. Although Trump and Israel appear to be aligned at the moment, it is difficult to believe that Trump is not furious that Netanyahu unilaterally deep-sixed his preferred strategy of negotiating a settlement to Iran’s nuclear provocations. Allowing Israel to continue its assault on Iran, even after the nuclear threat has been removed, would enable Netanyahu to continue to ignore the United States on a host of regional issues. The junior partner dictating strategy to the senior partner of the alliance should not be tolerated. Trump’s deference to Israeli preferences should end upon the dropping of the bunker-buster on the Fordow facility.

Second, the United States should prefer a Middle East with an aggressively weakened Islamic Republic to the uncertainty and chaos of Iranian regime change, which appears to be Israel’s current war aim. Netanyahu has made it clear that this is his desire. You do not ask permission to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader or bomb state-run television stations if your only goal is to preempt the Iranian nuclear threat. If Trump’s goal is a more stable and peaceful Middle East region so the U.S. can concentrate on China, toppling the regime and rolling the dice on who takes power in Iran is a horrible way to achieve that objective. Adding Iran to the list of fragile or failing states (Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, and Iraq) is no way to end conflict, create stability in oil markets, or protect allies in the region. A cowed Islamic Republic that is functional, yet incapable of threatening its neighbors would be a far preferable result.

Finally, Trump may not realize this yet, but curbing Netanyahu’s power is necessary to stop him from pursuing his second grand objective (the first being removing the Iranian threat) which is an exterminationist approach to the Palestinians. This is the path that Netanyahu and his extremist coalition are currently following in Gaza and, if it works there, it will surely apply to the West Bank. It is a policy guaranteed to roil the Middle East for decades and fracture a possible grand alliance in the Middle East of the United States, Israel, and the Sunni Arab states. This alliance is needed as part of the effort to push back on China and Russia’s effort to gain hegemony over the Eurasian landmass and undercut U.S. global power.

Israel’s continued persecution of the Palestinians and resistance to any form of self-determination for the Palestinian people makes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia impossible and will continue to destabilize the region. However, the combination of eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat and clipping Netanyahu’s wings will expose Netanyahu to the international and domestic political pressures that his abhorrent war in Gaza has created, hopefully leading to multilateral discussions on a framework for an enduring settlement of the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Allowing Israel to bring down the Iranian regime would anoint Netanyahu the colossus of the Middle East and embolden him to continue down his destructive path. Trump should stop this disaster in its tracks.