Thank you Brian for your feedback which is very welcome.
If the elimination of Iran's nuclear program results in a popular uprising that unseats the Islamic Republic, I will not shed any tears as this is a regime with zero redeeming qualities. The track record of the West on managing regime change in the Middle East, however, is abysmal. If Israel continues bombing the regime to the point of collapse, I do fear that it is possible for an even more reactionary group to take power, that will provoke widespread instability and be even more oppressive to the Iranian people than the Islamic Republic. I also have seen absolutely no restraint in Bibi's destructive actions in Gaza, which he, I am confident, knows in is heart are morally and strategically bankrupt, but he continues to pursue then to maintain power and avoid accountability for Oct. 7.
My impression of Iran is that it has potential for a cohesive national identity that could undergird a viable parliamentary government. Much of the populace is well educated, economically astute, and is chafing under the theocratic rule of the mullahs. Ethnically 65% of the population is "Persian". Religiously 90% of the population is Shia. Those conditions do not exist in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Libya. A regime change deriving from the overthrow of the Ayatollah might well result in a democratic nation state rooted in an historical sense of itself.
Trump is making things worse by calling for "unconditional surrender," whatever he means by that. He is also using the first person plural "we" in conflating Israel and the United States. Even so, I like David's argument for the targeted use of the bunker busting bombs if Iran does not relent and shut down its nuclear program. I would not, however, count on Netanyahu being compliant to our wishes either with terminating the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians or with ending the war with Iran. Trump had to win an election to stay out of prison. Bibi has to keep his wars going to avert what will be coming to him in Israel after the military exigencies have ended. Would the U.S. be willing to pause military aid to Israel to force the bellicose Israeli right wing to cease and desist?
I do not know enough about Iran to predict what type of regime might emerge if the Islamic Republic falls. But I do know that the West's record in managing regime change in the Middle East is abysmal. Indeed, had the CIA not felt it understood what kind of regime was best for Iran in the 1950s, the world may never have had to experience the Islamic Republic. Indeed, I was amused by an article about a relative of the Shah laying the groundwork to return to Iran, memories of how ex-pat Iraqis were going to come in and make everything all right for America after it toppled Saddam. I am pretty confident that the average Iranian is not pining for a return of the brutal, tyrannical Pahlevi family. On your other point, Trump has used tools domestically that no other president has seen fit to use to coerce and compel various actors to change their policies. You are right, he seems virtually deferential to Bibi, but he also should be humiliated by him. Trump doesn't like it when people don't listen to him - perhaps he would use the substantial military lever we have over Israel to get Bibi to stop the regime change war in which he is engaged.
I align with much of your perspective, but I strongly disagree on allowing a weakened Iranian regime to survive. The current Iranian leadership, often referred to as the mullahs, poses a significant threat that justifies their complete removal. A weakened regime could still regroup and regain influence, especially under a less assertive U.S. administration, such as one resembling the Biden administration, which might enable their resurgence. Regarding Netanyahu, your concerns seem overstated. His actions are likely to be restrained either by Trump, or by the Israeli electorate, who could vote him out if he fails to pursue a viable and widely accepted resolution in Gaza.
Thank you Brian for your feedback which is very welcome.
If the elimination of Iran's nuclear program results in a popular uprising that unseats the Islamic Republic, I will not shed any tears as this is a regime with zero redeeming qualities. The track record of the West on managing regime change in the Middle East, however, is abysmal. If Israel continues bombing the regime to the point of collapse, I do fear that it is possible for an even more reactionary group to take power, that will provoke widespread instability and be even more oppressive to the Iranian people than the Islamic Republic. I also have seen absolutely no restraint in Bibi's destructive actions in Gaza, which he, I am confident, knows in is heart are morally and strategically bankrupt, but he continues to pursue then to maintain power and avoid accountability for Oct. 7.
As of 2019, Israel remains the only country in the Middle East believed to possess nuclear weapons (see Wikipedia for details).....
My impression of Iran is that it has potential for a cohesive national identity that could undergird a viable parliamentary government. Much of the populace is well educated, economically astute, and is chafing under the theocratic rule of the mullahs. Ethnically 65% of the population is "Persian". Religiously 90% of the population is Shia. Those conditions do not exist in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Libya. A regime change deriving from the overthrow of the Ayatollah might well result in a democratic nation state rooted in an historical sense of itself.
Trump is making things worse by calling for "unconditional surrender," whatever he means by that. He is also using the first person plural "we" in conflating Israel and the United States. Even so, I like David's argument for the targeted use of the bunker busting bombs if Iran does not relent and shut down its nuclear program. I would not, however, count on Netanyahu being compliant to our wishes either with terminating the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians or with ending the war with Iran. Trump had to win an election to stay out of prison. Bibi has to keep his wars going to avert what will be coming to him in Israel after the military exigencies have ended. Would the U.S. be willing to pause military aid to Israel to force the bellicose Israeli right wing to cease and desist?
I do not know enough about Iran to predict what type of regime might emerge if the Islamic Republic falls. But I do know that the West's record in managing regime change in the Middle East is abysmal. Indeed, had the CIA not felt it understood what kind of regime was best for Iran in the 1950s, the world may never have had to experience the Islamic Republic. Indeed, I was amused by an article about a relative of the Shah laying the groundwork to return to Iran, memories of how ex-pat Iraqis were going to come in and make everything all right for America after it toppled Saddam. I am pretty confident that the average Iranian is not pining for a return of the brutal, tyrannical Pahlevi family. On your other point, Trump has used tools domestically that no other president has seen fit to use to coerce and compel various actors to change their policies. You are right, he seems virtually deferential to Bibi, but he also should be humiliated by him. Trump doesn't like it when people don't listen to him - perhaps he would use the substantial military lever we have over Israel to get Bibi to stop the regime change war in which he is engaged.
I align with much of your perspective, but I strongly disagree on allowing a weakened Iranian regime to survive. The current Iranian leadership, often referred to as the mullahs, poses a significant threat that justifies their complete removal. A weakened regime could still regroup and regain influence, especially under a less assertive U.S. administration, such as one resembling the Biden administration, which might enable their resurgence. Regarding Netanyahu, your concerns seem overstated. His actions are likely to be restrained either by Trump, or by the Israeli electorate, who could vote him out if he fails to pursue a viable and widely accepted resolution in Gaza.